In the last note on Monetary Policy published by the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH), it is reported that the estimates made by the Bank's Currency and Economic Analysis Department show a slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter of fiscal year 2016-2017 compared to the previous quarter.

The growth rate of the industrial production index is expected to fall to 1.6% after the 4.8% increase in the fourth quarter of 2015-2016. Similarly, the business activity index would increase from 5% in the previous quarter to 2% this quarter.

Considering these different indicators allowing to evaluate the evolution of the local offer, the inflationary pressures have increased. The inflation rate rose from 12.5% in September to 14.2% in November 2016. The analysis of core inflation indicates an evolution below overall inflation during the quarter under study. This indicates that the increase in the rate of inflation growth is largely the result of volatile commodity prices, which have been impacted by the passage of Hurricane Matthew.

For the external sector, available provisional data indicate an increase in the trade deficit, an increase in the level of unrequited private transfers and a continued depreciation of the gourde against the US dollar.

Thus, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the trade deficit amounted to US $634.32 million, reflecting a 2.43% increase over the previous quarter, despite a stronger increase in exports. Indeed, during the period considered, exports totaled US$270.9 million, an increase of 3.55%, while the level of imports was US$905.22 million, up 2.76%.

Moreover, despite the 6.34% increase in unrequited private transfers 154.42 million in October 2016, the trend in the depreciation of the Gourde has continued. As at December 19, 2016, BRH's reference rate is 67.3329 gourdes for one dollar, an increase of 2.72% compared to the last day of September of the same year.

As of December 21, 2016, the state of public finances was characterized by a greater decline in government revenues compared to public expenditure. In the first quarter of 2016-2017, due to the shortfall due to the slowdown in economic activity, taxes collected by the Haitian State amounted to 14,643.57 MG, which corresponds to a decrease of 7.09% compared to last quarter. In terms of performance, revenues correspond to a realization rate of approximately 28.17% of the budgetary revenue forecast for the 2016-2017 fiscal year. On the other hand, spending decreased from 3.01% to 21 588.66 MG compared to the previous quarter.

HL/ HaitiLibre