The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) reported that the vigorous low pressure system located today to about 300 miles east of Martinique [983 miles from Haiti], is moving west-north-west at about 15 mph. This disturbance shows some signs of organization, a tropical depression could form later today.

The probability that this depression becomes a hurricane in the next 48 hours is 90% [10% lower than yesterday]. A aircraft loaded with scientific instruments currently studying the disturbance, to determine if it has a well-defined surface circulation center.

In Martinique, Météo France confirms a strong tropical wave with a development potential in depression. The trajectory of the disturbance is now a little further south compared to what was originally envisaged.

The forecast models : U.S Navy (NOGAPS) turquoise color, CLI-matology PER-sistence (CLI5) orange color and "Beta and Advection Model Shallow (BAMS)" green color show a direct passage on the regions north-west and north of Haiti. While the forecast models of the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) yellow color, indicates a passage on the southern coast of Haiti.

Note :

1 nautical mile = 1.852 meters

1 mph = 1,609344 km/h (kilometers per hour)

See also :

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-3485-haiti-weather-hurricane-in-formation.html

S/ HaitiLibre