An American media announced the victory of Jude Célestin, a Spanish media that of Michel Martelly and the Centre National d'Observation (CNO) by the voice of its director, the victory of Mirlande Manigat... The hours seem endless today in Haiti, where everyone waits, this Tuesday 7 December, the provisional results of the first turn of elections... An expectation fueled by speculation, certainties, doubts, rumors, partisan analysis and concerns...

Some see a second turn, Manigat-Célestin, other Martelly Manigat or Martelly-Célestin. In the latter case, the candidate Martelly, which not doubt to be present in the second turn... said Monday that he would not participate in a possible second tuen with Jude Célestin. Let us reassure the partisans of Martelly, if such is the case, Michel Martelly will be able, once more, to change idea. Let us not forget to finish those considering a second turn at 3 and even with other candidates...

A rumor (one more) reporte a victory of Jude Celestin after the taking into account of minutes that were set aside, for no apparent reason following pressures so that he goes to the 2nd turn with the candidate of the RDNP...

Attention, results might hold surprises, because this focus on three candidates, which raises the highest expectations and criticism, is not based on sufficiently reliable data to say with certainty (other than partisan belief) the presence of these candidates at the second turn. Others might as well create the surprise, given the lack of real information available.

The prediction of the CNO to be taken with prudence...

Laguerre Noel, director of the CNO is not left in the rumors (or previsions). He indicated that, on 11.217 polling stations throughout the country, 1.591 polling stations were taken into account. He affirms that a tendency would have been released starting from an analysis of data collected in these polling stations and that the candidate Mirlande Manigat "Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes (RDNP)", ranks first with 58,827 votes either 29.9%. Then the candidates Michel Martelly "Repons Peyizan" with 49,289 either 25%, Jude Célestin "INITE" with 21% and Jean Henry Céant "Renmen Haïti" with 16,131 wotes either 8.2%.

Let us not draw conclusions on a number of votes so limited. These figures could be meaningful only if the trend continued. Given the very large numbers of irregularities and fraud, it is unlikely that statistical models can be applied to these elections, because of too many unknown factors.

Because of stigma, of Jude Celestin (wrongly or rightly), he can boast of having mobilized the whole world against him. Everyone seems to have a reason to throw a stone : parties who were arbitrarily excluded from elections, parties that boycotted the elections, candidates who claim their cancellation and even candidates who believe to be in the best position and which fears to be ejected. It is possible to create unity in Haiti, even if it is in the negative.

History of providing "grist to the mill of speculation" imagine that the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) surprised everyone and cancels the elections... After all, if everyone can change idea, the CEP can do it too...

The only thing we know for sure, is that whatever the results, there will be unhappy, unrest and violence because considering the sharp tension which reigns in Haiti.


HL/ HaitiLibre